An Evaluation of Population Forecast Errors for Florida

An evaluation of population projections by age.

A number of studies have evaluated the accuracy of projections of the size of the total population, but few have considered the accuracy of projections by age group. For many purposes, however, the relevant variable is the population of a particular age group, rather than the population as a whole. We investigated the precision and bias of a variety of age-group projections at the national and ...

Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process or on empirical analyses of past f...

Evaluation of neuro fuzzy systems performance for runoff forecast (Case study: Allah-Jokanak basin)

Making the Housing Unit Method Work: An Evaluation of 2010 Population Estimates in Florida

The housing unit (HU) method—in which population estimates are derived from estimates of occupied HUs—is the most commonly used method for making smallarea population estimates in the United States. It is widely used because it is conceptually simple, can utilize a wide variety of data sources, can be applied at virtually any level of geography, and often produces reliable estimates. Yet the HU...

Empirical Prediction Intervals for County Population Forecasts

Population forecasts entail a significant amount of uncertainty, especially for long-range horizons and for places with small or rapidly changing populations. This uncertainty can be dealt with by presenting a range of projections or by developing statistical prediction intervals. The latter can be based on models that incorporate the stochastic nature of the forecasting process, on empirical a...